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East Pacific/2015/03E/Archive/23
Public advisory HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 23 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER 10:00 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 ..,SMALL HURRICANE CARLOS REMAINS DISORGANIZED SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 10:00 PM CDT...03:00 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION... 17.2N 103.5W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 KT...75 MPH...120 KM/H MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT...6 MPH...9 KM/H DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 10:00 pm CDT, the center of Hurricane Carlos was located at 17.2N, 103.5W, or about 100 miles (160 km) west-southwest of Lázaro Cárdenas, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds in the storm were 75 mph (120 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure was 992 millibars (inHg; 29.30 inHg), and the system was moving west-northwest at 5 knots (6 mph, 9 km/h). Carlos is expected to change little in intensity over the next day as it parallels the southwestern coast of Mexico. Steady weakening should begin thereafter. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 4:00 am CDT. $$ Forecaster TAWX14 Discussion HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER 10:00 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 Hurricane Carlos is maintaining its intensity this afternoon. Geostationary satellite animations show a disorganized cyclone, with a majority of the associated convection located to the south of the low-level circulation. 0z satellite intensity estimates were T4.0/65kt from SAB and TAFB, in line with earlier data from a reconnaissance aircraft that measured 69 kt flight-level winds and 67 kt surface winds. As such, the initial intensity will remain 65 kt. Data from the plane, in addition to an earlier ASCAT pass, indicates that Carlos is an extremely small system, with hurricane-force winds extending out no greater than 10 miles. Carlos may be one of the smallest hurricanes on record in the East Pacific, but a detailed record is not available to know for sure. Water vapor images show that Carlos continues to be hindered by northerly wind shear on the order of 10 to 15 knots from a large anticyclone to the cyclone's northwest. Although models indicate that the upper-level environment will become conducive again, there are a few complicating factors. First off, the hurricane is embedded within a dry environment, characterized by 700-500 mb relative humidity values less than 65%, and forecast to enter an even drier airmass over the coming days. In addition, as the storm moves west-northwest to northwest, land interaction may become an issue. The storm's small size means that even the slightest of detriments may be lethal to the maintenance of the system. These factors are likely why a majority of the intensity models do not indicate further intensification throughout the forecast period. All considered, the updated forecast depicts a quicker rate of weakening after 24 hours, with little change beforehand. The initial motion is 290/5. A subtropical ridge located over northern Mexico is acting to steer Carlos on a general west-northwest motion. This is expected to continue for the next 36 to 48 hours. Thereafter, Carlos is expected to take on more of a northerly motion as it feels the effects of a weakness in the ridge enhanced by newly-formed Tropical Storm Bill in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The updated forecast track has been shifted farther west to account for a shift in model guidance since the last advisory. The hurricane is not expected to make landfall, and wind impacts should be minimal along the southwestern Mexico coastline given Carlos' small stature. INIT 16/0300Z 17.2N 103.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 17.4N 104.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 18.2N 104.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 19.0N 105.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 19.8N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 20.4N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z 21.2N 106.9W 15 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster TAWX14